The good oil on Vista (why people will run Vista)

Recently there’s been discussion on vista and cars, here and there, but really, that comparison is kind of bullsh*t.  It’s a mixed metaphor, confusing software and hardware.  Vista is more like the fuel, not the car.  That is, you have the car (the hardware), you can choose which fuel to put in it.
So the main reasons you will see people switch to Vista is much like the transition from leaded petrol (aka gasoline) to unleaded.  first, you’ll have the new cars (hardware) ship with a recommendation to use unleaded (Vista).  In fact that’ll be the main driving force, the sale of Vista with new PC’s.
The second factor will be the phasing out of availability of the leaded fuel (XP).  that’s a double edge sword for Microsoft, and although we’ve all had a really good free run with XP upgrades for the past many many years, that was a commercial decision Microsoft made to build trust.  I sure hope they don’t drop support for XP just because they’ve finally got a new OS.  Really, it should be 5 years *after* the upgrade is available, to be fair to those buying PC’s today.  But whenever that day is, it will be the second major driving force.
An interesting part of these two factors, the new hardware and  the removal of support is the role the competition plays. The average consumer is still not ready to take on the role of support staff for a *nix system, and Mac’s remain Mac hardware only still.  While these factors remain, it means Microsoft can comfortably hold it’s current market share, hurt them a little even, and focus on competing against the others, such as the Mac 😉
But as to people upgrading existing machines to Vista, I think that will be a very small percentage to null.  it’s funny really, when I look at Vista, knowing that I can upgrade to it for free even, I still find it very non compelling.  I certainly don’t expect copies of Vista in retail software outlets to be a hot item.